"Someone far wiser than I once said that the market has predicted ten of the last seven recessions"
-Damodaran
Post completo
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Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta damodaran. Mostrar todas las entradas
26 de octubre de 2008
24 de octubre de 2008
Damodaran habla de valoraciones "postcrisis"
The intrinsic value of a business is still a function of its capacity to generate cash flows in the future (...). I am not going to create new paradigms for valuation just because we are in turmoil. In terms of estimates, though, here is what I believe has changed in these last 6 weeks:
1. The risk premiums we demand for investing in equities as a class and in corporate bonds has increased significantly (...)
2. It is beyond debate now that there will be consequences for economies globally. The slowdown will affect real economic growth (and consequently earnings growth) next year for companies around the world.
3. The long term consequences for individual companies is likely to be mixed. The shake out and more limited access to capital will put smaller companies at risk and drive many of them out of business. Larger companies will strong balance sheets and significant competitive advantages will emerge the winners from this turmoil. (...)
Lectura del powerpoint a juego más que recomendada
Post completo en Musings on Markets, blog de Damodaran
1. The risk premiums we demand for investing in equities as a class and in corporate bonds has increased significantly (...)
2. It is beyond debate now that there will be consequences for economies globally. The slowdown will affect real economic growth (and consequently earnings growth) next year for companies around the world.
3. The long term consequences for individual companies is likely to be mixed. The shake out and more limited access to capital will put smaller companies at risk and drive many of them out of business. Larger companies will strong balance sheets and significant competitive advantages will emerge the winners from this turmoil. (...)
Lectura del powerpoint a juego más que recomendada
Post completo en Musings on Markets, blog de Damodaran
10 de octubre de 2008
Vídeo entrevista al Santo de Omaha
Acabo de terminar de ver el video de Buffet, quien ya he confesado anteriormente es uno de mis idolos personales, que enlazaron hace unos días en gurusblog . Seguro que sus actuales inversiones, en las que está entrando a precio de saldo gracias a no haber sido avaricioso con operaciones arriesgadas a multiplos abusordos los ultimos años le salen bastante rentables. Dados los tiempos que corren el tener caja para respaldar a Goldman Sachs, General Electric y el Tesoro americano entre otros es claramente una posicion privilegiada.
Actualizo con post de Damodaran al respecto
In the last two weeks, Warren Buffett has made news by taking multi-billion dollar positions at Goldman Sachs and GE, two companies that would have topped the list of most admired firms a couple of years ago (and perhaps still). The fact that he is getting a good deal from both companies has been well publicized. In effect, both companies have given him a discount on his investment, thus giving him the potential for higher returns in the future. While part of those higher returns can be attributed to the fact that he is providing liquidity in a market where it is in short supply, that alone cannot explain the nature of the deals. After all, Goldman and GE, notwithstanding current financial problems, have recourse to other equity funding. So, why did they choose to deal with Mr. Buffett?
I think the answer lies in the mythology. As investors lose faith in the institutions that they thought were the foundation of US financial markets, from the investment banks to the Fed, Warren Buffett remains one of the few icons with any credibility left in this market. In my view, both Goldman and GE are buying a share of that credibility with these investments. They are, in effect, telling the market to trust them because Buffett is now watching over them. I should also add that I do not begrudge Mr. Buffett trading on his credibility to generate higher returns for Berkshire Hathaway stockholders. He has invested a great deal in his reputation over the last few decades and he is the ultimate capitalist!
Actualizo con post de Damodaran al respecto
In the last two weeks, Warren Buffett has made news by taking multi-billion dollar positions at Goldman Sachs and GE, two companies that would have topped the list of most admired firms a couple of years ago (and perhaps still). The fact that he is getting a good deal from both companies has been well publicized. In effect, both companies have given him a discount on his investment, thus giving him the potential for higher returns in the future. While part of those higher returns can be attributed to the fact that he is providing liquidity in a market where it is in short supply, that alone cannot explain the nature of the deals. After all, Goldman and GE, notwithstanding current financial problems, have recourse to other equity funding. So, why did they choose to deal with Mr. Buffett?
I think the answer lies in the mythology. As investors lose faith in the institutions that they thought were the foundation of US financial markets, from the investment banks to the Fed, Warren Buffett remains one of the few icons with any credibility left in this market. In my view, both Goldman and GE are buying a share of that credibility with these investments. They are, in effect, telling the market to trust them because Buffett is now watching over them. I should also add that I do not begrudge Mr. Buffett trading on his credibility to generate higher returns for Berkshire Hathaway stockholders. He has invested a great deal in his reputation over the last few decades and he is the ultimate capitalist!
22 de mayo de 2006
Posts recopilatorios 2006 Q1
Poco a poco vamos cumpliendo los objetivos de la declaración de intenciones...
1. Los comentarios están en abierto y no ha generado problemas, sólo falta que consiga un "últimos comentarios"
2. Ya he añadido en el menú los enlaces a mis bookmarks (del.icio.us), blogs (bloglines), fotos (flickr), videos (youtube) y de paso un email de contacto (he puesto una imagen para no cosechar spam).
En fin, de momento os dejo con el post recopilatorio del primer trimestre 2006..
Google World Domination y otros 2.0
1. Los comentarios están en abierto y no ha generado problemas, sólo falta que consiga un "últimos comentarios"
2. Ya he añadido en el menú los enlaces a mis bookmarks (del.icio.us), blogs (bloglines), fotos (flickr), videos (youtube) y de paso un email de contacto (he puesto una imagen para no cosechar spam).
- Con este paso pretendo que el blog se convierta en un punto de acceso único a todos los contenidos que hago públicos
- Aquellos que me conoceis personalmente podeis solicitar "conectar" en estos servicios para que os facilite acceso a contenidos privados (ej. fotos del último viaje de esquí o bookmarks sobre aquel tema en el que trabajamos)
En fin, de momento os dejo con el post recopilatorio del primer trimestre 2006..
Google World Domination y otros 2.0
- Google OS en camino
- IBM no usará Windows!!!
- Los mercados son irracionales... ¿Montamos un wiki?
- Co.mments (2)
- Text 2 Speech
- Y yo que pensaba que el Google Earth era imbatible...
- Co.mments
- Google pierde fuelle
- Apple to Buy Palm???
- Google + IBM ???
- China tiene más poder que Estados Unidos???
- Microsoft y el Virus Windows... ¿Conspiración o negligencia?
- Google Cube (El PC de Google)
- Filantropia 2.0
- Web 2.0